Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
River discharge to the Baltic Sea in a future climate
This study reports on new projections of discharge to the Baltic Sea given possible realisations of future climate and uncertainties regarding these projections. A high-resolution, pan-Baltic application of the Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE) model was used to make transient simulations of discharge to the Baltic Sea for a mini-ensemble of climate projections representing tw...
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Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2-4 °C warming and 50-80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical-biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water...
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The combined effect of changing climate and changing nutrient loads from land due to altered land use, sewage water treatment and emissions was studied using a 3-dimensional highresolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea. Results suggest that global warming causes increased water temperatures and reduced sea ice cover, combined (eventually) with increased winter mean wi...
متن کاملContribution of regional climate drivers to future winter sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea estimated by statistical methods and simulations of climate models
A statistical downscaling approach is applied to the output of five different global climate model simulations driven by 21 century future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of sea-level pressure and precipitation changes to regional future winter sea-level changes is estimated for four Baltic sea-level stations by establishing statistical relationships between sea lev...
متن کاملVariability in climate change simulations affects needed long-term riverine nutrient reductions for the Baltic Sea
Changes to runoff due to climate change may influence management of nutrient loading to the sea. Assuming unchanged river nutrient concentrations, we evaluate the effects of changing runoff on commitments to nutrient reductions under the Baltic Sea Action Plan. For several countries, climate projections point to large variability in load changes in relation to reduction targets. These changes e...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: AMBIO
سال: 2013
ISSN: 0044-7447,1654-7209
DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0416-4